The Man Who’s Never Been Wrong — And He’s Backing the Netherlands
Three predictions. Three correct answers. Now he’s gone with an underdog.
The Model That Was Never Meant to Work
In 2014, German economist Joachim Klement created a formula originally intended to mock his own profession — built specifically to demonstrate how impossible it is to reliably predict the World Cup winner.
When his model spat out Germany as the winner of Brazil 2014, he was stunned — particularly because the consensus among experts had been that no European team had ever won a World Cup on South American soil. “The first time I was horrified,” he admitted.
Then he got it right again. And again.
| Year | Tournament | Klement’s Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | Brazil | 🇩🇪 Germany | ✅ Correct |
| 2018 | Russia | 🇫🇷 France | ✅ Correct |
| 2022 | Qatar | 🇦🇷 Argentina | ✅ Correct |
| 2026 | USA/Canada/Mexico | 🇳🇱 Netherlands | ❓ |
How the Model Works
Klement’s proprietary econometric model measures five key factors for a team’s success: GDP per capita, population, FIFA rankings, football culture, and temperature — variables that collectively reflect a nation’s sporting infrastructure, talent pool depth, and competitive environment. The model also factors in a bonus for the host nation, which benefits from having the most fans in stadiums.
Why the Netherlands — and the Path He Sees
Klement himself admitted some surprise at the output: “I was a bit surprised when it came out of my model and the simulations that the Netherlands would win — particularly given that the simulation showed they have a very, very difficult path to the final.”
His projected bracket:
- Netherlands def. Spain — Semi-final
- Portugal def. England — Semi-final
- Netherlands def. Portugal — Final
On the Spain semi-final, Klement is candid: “It will literally be 50/50 whether you beat Spain or not — but if you beat Spain, then the path is clear to the World Cup.” He added: “If Holland makes it to the semi-finals, it will be in a situation where it already has a lot of confidence it can beat anyone.”
The Historical Weight
For many, picking the Netherlands is notable for a deeply poignant reason — the Dutch have never won a World Cup despite reaching the final in 1974, 1978, and 2010, and having one of the most respected footballing traditions on the planet. A fourth final appearance, this time with a victory, would be the culmination of over 50 years of near-misses.
His Own Warning
Klement is the first to urge caution: “It’s completely irrational. It’s like playing the lottery. If anyone places a bet based on my prediction, they’re beyond help. It’s like tossing a coin — you might predict heads four times in a row, but that doesn’t guarantee it happens again.”
He also joked about the unexpected celebrity his model has brought him: “I suddenly became very popular in the Netherlands. I like to go to Holland at the end of each year on vacation — I just fear that if my prediction doesn’t come true, I might not be allowed back into the country!”
Three from three. The formula that was built to fail keeps on delivering.