Arsenal Hold Firm at the Top — Favourites for Final AND the Trophy
Despite being held to a 1-1 draw by Diego Simeone’s Atlético Madrid in the first leg of their Champions League semi-final, the data has not shifted its verdict. Arsenal remain the team most likely to be lifting the trophy in Budapest on May 30 — and it is not particularly close.
A 76.14% probability of reaching the final. A 39.13% chance of winning the entire competition. Those are not the numbers of a team that scraped through or got lucky. Those are the numbers of a team that has spent the entire season building an aura of invincibility in Europe — and one draw on the road in Madrid has done nothing to shake the confidence of the models that track these things.
The context is crucial. Arsenal are still unbeaten in 13 Champions League games this season. They went to the Metropolitano — one of the most hostile atmospheres in European football — against a side that had just demolished Barcelona and Tottenham in the knockout rounds, and they came away with a result. A goal to take back to the Emirates. A clean sheet to chase. And 90 minutes at home in front of a full, roaring crowd still to come.
The other side of the draw tells its own story. PSG and Bayern played out a nine-goal thriller in Paris, with both goalkeepers taking a hammering — and it is Arsenal’s defensive solidity, more than anything else, that continues to separate them from the rest in the eyes of the analytics community.
Clarence Seedorf said it best — clean sheets win Champions Leagues. And nobody in this competition has kept more of them than Mikel Arteta’s side.
The Emirates awaits. The second leg awaits. And with a 76% probability of making it through, Arsenal are not just favourites — they are doing exactly what favourites should do. Grinding. Defending. Surviving. And preparing to finish the job at home.