After an outstanding 2022-23 season that took them to the second round of the Playoffs, the New York Knicks have raised expectations in their fans. However, the question on the minds of many is whether this team can already be considered a true contender to do bigger things with Jalen Brunson, Julius Randle, and the company as leaders
Despite having the resources to make major moves in the offseason, the front office opted to keep mostly the same group as last year. This raises questions about what the appropriate expectation should be for the Knicks next season.
Most sportsbooks have the Knicks at around 44.5 wins for the season, putting them in sixth place in the Eastern Conference, behind teams like Boston, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Miami, and Cleveland.
Some more optimistic projections, such as the one from Bleacher Report that places the New York Knicks at 48 wins, see them even above the 76ers and tied with the Cavs. ESPN’s Bobby Marks even mentioned New York as one of the candidate teams to reach the Finals.
Looking back after the Josh Hart trade last season, the Knicks had an impressive record of 17 wins and 8 losses, which would project a 56-win pace for a full season. With that performance, they would have finished in third place in the Eastern Conference.
During that period, they outscored their opponents by six points per 100 possessions, the second-best net rating in the league. While maintaining this excellence throughout the season is a challenge, it could be that prognosticators are underestimating this team’s potential.
Reaching 50 wins would not be an easy task, but it is not a far-fetched possibility either. The Eastern Conference is unstable, with teams like Boston and Milwaukee seemingly weakening, and Philadelphia dealing with a complicated situation surrounding its star.
The Knicks have solid chemistry and developing young players. However, it is important to remember that this scenario represents the ceiling of expectations for New York.
At worst, the team should at least maintain its level from last season, competing in the mid-to-upper 40s range in wins. Any performance below 40 wins, unless affected by significant injuries, would be considered a setback and could require a re-evaluation.
Ultimately, it will be the Playoffs that will determine how the Knicks are truly perceived. An early or Play-In elimination would raise questions about the future of this core. While reaching the Conference Finals or beyond would prove that they are a legitimate contender. This would require a concerted effort from the entire team and a bit of luck, but last season showed that it is not something unattainable.
The only notable offseason move was the trade of Obi Toppin for Donte DiVincenzo. While there are things to consider, overall it appears to be an advantage for the Knicks. DiVincenzo brings the type of shooting the team needs and fits well in Tom Thibodeau’s system.
While there is an argument that the Knicks now lack size at the backup power forward position, the reality is that this position does not require many minutes in the rotation, and the benefits of DiVincenzo’s shot outweigh the drawbacks.
KEY YEAR
In short, the Knicks enter the 2023-24 season with moderate expectations, which may be beneficial. Despite the projections, fans may get excited, but the team is not under overwhelming pressure to exceed unrealistic expectations. The evidence suggests there is reason to be excited, but the key will be how they perform in the postseason and whether they can prove they are a true contender.
